5 October 2026
We've been doing a lot of musing over automation and (IP) law lately, and I promise that I'll stop at some point to focus on filing stats or something. If and until then, however...
How amenable to automation is law?
I've covered this ground before, using the analogy of metalworking to argue that the field of law is likely to be structurally impacted by automation. Two recent posts also looked at the issue using the arguments and observations of others to get a gauge on the possible outcomes. Finally, we've recently looked at the argument that no, actually, the structure of law as a profession is pretty durably and may not be disrupted so much as altered/augmented. But there's a stated assumption here: that law as a field is amenable to automation because of the large amount of potential training data and its fundamentally written nature. Let's dig into that assumption a bit.
The insight here came as a bit of a tangent, via a guest article by Ramez Naam on Noah Smith's Substack (which mainly covers economic topics). In the article, Ramez argues that a specific prediction about the development of AI - that there will be a self-reinforcing feedback loop where AI-developing-AI will cause exponentially faster development of ever-better AI (the fast-takeoff theory) - is not showing up in the real world*. Almost as an aside, the author mentions that:
"I do expect narrow superintelligence in highly verifiable domains. Think chess, Go, formal math, parts of computer science and coding. Highly verifiable domains are largely formal and structured types of work where machines can generate unlimited training data, with perfect or near-perfect verification of correct vs incorrect, and do so entirely in software without waiting on the physical world or humans. That’s an ideal setting for AI learning." (emphasis mine)
This is, I think, a useful insight when thinking about how easily digestible various legal tasks are for automation. Happily for the existence of lawyers (and unhappily for everyone who has ever disliked lawyers as a species), a lot of legal tasks seem to fall on one or more of these criteria. The closest match that I can think of is in routine contracts, where there is large (but not unlimited) data volume, feedback can perhaps be automated to some extent (although I expect that a lot of human input remains necessary) and evaluation is, if not error-free, then at least reasonably certain**. Patent specifications are similar, but again a lot of human feedback would be needed to get really good drafting out. From there it gets murkier, and of course some legal tasks (e.g. arguing a case in court) are more or less by definition exclusive of automated interventions short of embodied AGIs.
What this says to me is that, while LLM-based AIs will undoubtedly get better for the legal tasks that we're already using them for (first-draft preparation, initial document inspection and clean-up, legal research and opinion-gathering), there's a harder hill to climb to get to the point that they will be superhuman lawyers.
* The article is long but worth reading in full, by the way.
** Lawyers may not always agree on what a well-drafted agreement looks like, but we can mostly agree when a poorly-drafted one is placed in front of us.
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